This past weekend, my wife & I shared a cold one at a local brewery while discussing the shutdown. Pundits and others wave off the shutdown’s impact as “a small percentage of the Federal workforce”, as if it’s trivial. Trouble is, the headcount of furloughed Federal employees creates a butterfly effect that ripples outward to almost every sector of U.S. business.
Shutdown data & families
800,000 Federal employees are currently going without pay. Slightly fewer than half are furloughed – meaning they aren’t allowed to work. More than half are “essential workers” – required to work during a shutdown. Those working will receive back pay once the shutdown ends, but furloughed employees have no “guarantee” of receiving back pay.
The shutdown affects about 3.2 million employees & family members. My non-scientific extrapolation assumes four members per Federal employee household. There’s income flowing into those households if they have two employed people if one isn’t a Federal employee… maybe. Perhaps the two jobs depend on access to childcare. If one is unpaid, can they still afford childcare? If one employee is “essential”, both still have to work. Result: childcare is necessary. It’s not uncommon for both family wage earners to be Federal employees. I know a number of couples who both work for the USFS or Park Service, having met at work when they were single.
You’ll hear some say these people don’t matter and/or that they don’t care if they’re paid. You should. Their economic activity (or change in activity), regardless of their financial condition & habits, is what creates an economic butterfly effect in towns all over the U.S. (Update: 1/9/2019 from the NYTimes based on US Gov data: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/09/us/government-shutdown-state-by-state.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes )
The local economic butterfly effect
Federal employee families have mortgages, eat in restaurants & go to bars. They get oil changes, rent movies & purchase medical care. These families own businesses (like a favorite local brewery), buy raw materials, & employ people. They buy gas, clothes, donuts, firewood, cleaning services, plumbing / electrical repairs, groceries, etc.
This economic activity creates revenue for all local businesses. If you run a restaurant, bar, or other business near a Federal building – it’s likely that a lot of your business comes from Federal employees. TSA folks get a coffee/meal at an airport business. I suspect that activity will shrink at every U.S. airport.
Tax refunds often pay for vacations, bills, & down payments on large purchases. Loaning the Feds money at zero interest may seem unwise, but the economic impact is undeniable. The IRS does not pay refunds during shutdowns.
The now-closed IRS income verification service will eventually impact home purchase closings. Mortgage approvals use the service for income verification. Home purchases affect local banks, real estate agents, closing firms, home inspectors, and home repair contractors, among others.
Local breweries that can / bottle beer are stuck in line waiting to release new beers. The Federal agency that processes over 16,600 beer label applications per month is closed. Someone sells them hops, malt, yeast, bottles, cans, labels, & graphic arts. Someone manufactures & delivers them. Some puts that income into investments, savings, tuition, a home, etc.
Closed or limited Federal lands access can more directly affect local businesses. In West Yellowstone, Montana Public Radio reported that Xanterra and 13 other local businesses managed to arrange a temporary deal to pay the park to plow the roads & groom snowmobile trails in Yellowstone. While $7500 a day is expensive, the alternative is a lot of lost revenue & people out of work during winter peak season. There aren’t a lot of open jobs in West Yellowstone, so even one business laying off its entire staff could create a cascading nightmare for a small town and its families. A snowcoach business owner in the area mentioned that the deal keeps his 14 employees working. Businesses in the Mammoth, Cooke City and West Yellowstone areas are likely thrilled about the temporary deal.
That option isn’t available everywhere.
Butterflies & ripples are different
In a pond, ripples get smaller in height as they expand their reach toward the shore. When they reach the water’s edge, they might barely be noticeable. The butterfly effect works in reverse. Each wave is bigger and interactions create more waves.
As each of these economic impacts ripples outward, it affects more and more people & businesses. At first, the impact is small. Over time, these small impacts accumulate and start to push family & business finances over the edge. Not just those of Federal families, but everywhere. Want to help out? Buy local.
This highly scientific diagram is an incomplete and highly simplified representation of a part of this discussion. Note that it doesn’t include every Federal agency, nor does it include cash flow lines between families who own local businesses to other local businesses.